La difficoltà del votare

In questo blog raramente aggiornato la politica è l’argomento probabilmente trattato con maggiore frequenza, tra l’altro esponendo opinioni che, col tempo, sono anche andate cambiando. Quest’anno alcune di queste opinioni andranno finalmente soppesate in vista delle elezioni del prossimo 4 marzo.

Cinque anni fa ero in Albione e suggerivo di votare Partito Democratico, pur non potendolo votare io stesso (non ero iscritto all’AIRE, mentre ora lo sono). Fu una scelta fatta un poco per esclusione, un poco per la volontà di non vedere altri personaggi avventurosi al governo. Cinque anni dopo noto che dalle parti dello stesso partito si cerchi di portare avanti l’immagine di “forza tranquilla” (alla François Mitterrand), nonostante nel frattempo i cosiddetti rottamatori abbiano preso in mano il partito e un pezzo della storica classe dirigente abbia deciso, per motivi non solo politici ma anche personali, di andarsene e fare la loro battaglia da fuori – extra ecclesiam nulla salus, a mio avviso, ma, come dicevo, qui alcune battaglie fatte sono state tutto fuorché politiche.

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#Elezioni2018 – You need allies, not just votes, to win elections in Italy

The latest electoral contest in Sicily has been widely considered in Italy as a resounding defeat for the Democratic Party, a success for the centre-right forces and, after all, a good result for the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, which, anyway, did not succeed in winning its first regional election. If we look at some numbers and details, however, we might get a more nuanced picture

Sicily has been for almost two decades a centre-right stronghold (at the 2001 general election, 61 constituencies out of 61 were won by the coalition supporting Silvio Berlusconi). Local government is granted a number of special powers. Moreover, a multitude of local lists and regional parties make the political landscape quite fluid and peculiar on the island. In 2012, the surge of Grillo’s party and the internal division of the centre-right (split into two different coalitions, while the Union of the Centre, a Christian-democrat party normally loyal to the centre-right and electorally strong in Sicily, changed side) led to the victory of Rosario Crocetta, the candidate of the Democratic Party-led coalition. which, however, was unable to win a majority of seats at the Sicilian Regional Assembly.

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#Elezioni2018 – A potential anti-EU coalition in Italy?

In the current year, many have feared (or hoped for) the rise of anti-EU, anti-establishment or simply radical parties or candidates (which, more than occasionally, turned out to be radical right parties) in countries such as France or the Netherlands. According to some commentators, this would have led, in the long run, to the disgregation of the current ‘liberal’ order, at least in Europe, and to the collapse of the European Union after the Brexit blow in 2016. However, Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen did not succeed and the European project has not been hit further.

I thought, anyway, that many would have turned closer attention to Italy by now, as it seems the most likely potential target for anti-EU forces, but, apparently, it did not happen – wrongly, in my opinion. There are two factors, indeed, that make Italy a target for anti-EU’s’ appetites. First, after two decisions of the Constitutional Court in 2014 and in 2017, and the referendum held in December, Italy now has a substantially PR voting system both for the lower house and the Senate – remember: both have equal powers. This means that coalitions are almost necessary to rule the country. Second, no natural coalition seems likely to win a majority of seats: both a potential centre-left and a potential centre-right coalition look unable to attract more than 30%-40% of votes, while the Five Star Movement rules out any form of alliance with other parties.

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