In the current year, many have feared (or hoped for) the rise of anti-EU, anti-establishment or simply radical parties or candidates (which, more than occasionally, turned out to be radical right parties) in countries such as France or the Netherlands. According to some commentators, this would have led, in the long run, to the disgregation of the current ‘liberal’ order, at least in Europe, and to the collapse of the European Union after the Brexit blow in 2016. However, Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen did not succeed and the European project has not been hit further.
I thought, anyway, that many would have turned closer attention to Italy by now, as it seems the most likely potential target for anti-EU forces, but, apparently, it did not happen – wrongly, in my opinion. There are two factors, indeed, that make Italy a target for anti-EU’s’ appetites. First, after two decisions of the Constitutional Court in 2014 and in 2017, and the referendum held in December, Italy now has a substantially PR voting system both for the lower house and the Senate – remember: both have equal powers. This means that coalitions are almost necessary to rule the country. Second, no natural coalition seems likely to win a majority of seats: both a potential centre-left and a potential centre-right coalition look unable to attract more than 30%-40% of votes, while the Five Star Movement rules out any form of alliance with other parties.